Broke down yesterday, so I went back into the pedigree of indexes.
This sounds familiar:
http://www.angusjournal.com/articlepdf/0388_seedstock%201.pdf"The future definition of "better"
Today, in the mid-1980s, seed stock producers are
becoming more appreciative of this fact. We now have a
"systems perspective." We know that intermediate levels of
performance for traits like milk production, birth weight,
and mature size are optimal, that efficiency results from a
delicate balance of many traits interacting with
environmental factors, and that overall genetic merit is
complex in nature and difficult to quantify. We know
different animals are appropriate in different situations and
that in some cases, efficiency is limited by environment,not genetics."
...
"There's an interesting twist to this situation, however.
Precisely because intermediate levels of a number of traits
are the most efficient, many cattle populations may be
close to genetically optimal already. To be sure, there is
always room for improvement. But in terms of overall
genetic merit, many cattle-if located in the right place
and used in the right way-may be about as good as
cattle can get. If this is the case, we arrive at the
uncomfortable conclusion that maximizing the rate of
genetic change can be a waste of effort. What, then, are
seed stock producers and animal breeding researchers to
do? How do we select breeding cattle under these
circumstances?"
Selection approaches to consider
If we begin with the assumption that the major traits
of growth rate (size) and milk production are near optimal
levels within a herd, it follows there should be a shift in
emphasis away from them. Selection emphasis should be
moved toward the more subtle traits related to adaptability
and convenience, the "fine points." These would include
fertility, soundness, fleshing ability, calving ease,
survivability, and temperament.
...
Despite the shift away from selection for milk and
growth, these traits are still very much present and must
be dealt with. There will be a fundamental change in the
approach to selection, however. Breeders will be selecting
from the "middle" for these traits. No longer will the eye catching,
extreme calf be the one that is kept as a herd
sire. The herd sire will be relatively nondescript.
Psychologically, making the transition to this type of
selection may be very difficult for many breeders. There is
some consolation, however, in knowing that although it may appear
only average animals are being selected, in terms of genetics merit,
the best animals are being selected
http://www.angusjournal.com/articlepdf/0397aj_beeflogic.pdfHigh EPDs not always best in genetic improvement
EPDs are not a measure of value.
However, when consistency-not change-is the goal,
accuracy of evaluation becomes critical. This implies
heavier use of older bulls. Selection differentials can be
expected to decline and generation intervals increase.
As breeders turn their attention to the "fine points,"
the adaptability and convenience traits, sire evaluation
should shift its focus also.
As breeding objectives for the major traits are
reached, beef cattle selection will require a whole new way
of thinking. Rapid genetic change will no longer be
important. We will enter a period of "new conservatism"
where extremes are avoided, increasing attention is paid to
accuracy of evaluation, and primary emphasis is on
preventing mistakes. The genetic change that does occur
will be in the areas of adaptability and convenience and
can be expected to be slow.